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Tuesday, 22 May 2018 09:12

Road death statistics for 65 to 74 year old drivers

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Road death statistics for 65 to 74 year old drivers

Comment on an article on the ABC.

 

YOU CAN READ THE ARTICLE HERE.

Fatal crashes involving older drivers rise as surgeon calls for advertising rethink

ABC North Coast

Posted 15 May 2018, 3:38pm

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Dr Punch discovered road fatalities for drivers between 65 and 74 had increased nationally by 2.3 per cent each year since 2007.

That is over the 10 years x 2.3% = 23% increase

However the population increase for this age group in Australia from figures on the website

https://profile.id.com.au/australia/five-year-age-groups?EndYear=2006&DataType=UR&BMID=50

show that for the age group

65 to 69 in 2016 there were 1,188,989 and in 2006 757,386, hence an increase of 431,603.

70 to 74 in 2016 there were 887,721 and in 2006 616,057, hence an increase of 271,664.

Population in 2006 was 757,386+ 616,057 = 1373443

The increase to 2016 was 703267

Hence the population increase for this age group was 51.2%

The deaths should have increase by 51.2%. They have only increased by 23%

Consequently road fatalities for 65 to 74 have been reduced by 55%

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For 20 to 24

2006 numbers 1,347,373

Increase to 2016 = 219,419

Hence 16.2% increase in 20 to 24 year olds BUT an increase of 51.2% in 65 to 74 year olds.

Consequently a raw figure increase for the latter would need to be more than 3 x the former for them to be equal.

NOTE THAT IF THE FIGURES ARE FOR DRIVERS ONLY RATHER THAN WHOLE POPULATION THE PERCENTAGE OF YOUNGER PEOPLE BECOMING DRIVERS HAS DECREASED IN RECENT TIMES SO THE PERCENTAGE DIFFERENCE WOULD BE GREATER.

Note: I am assuming older drivers remain a constant percentage of the population of the oldies.

Note: The statistics table has 15 to 20 but not 17 to 20.

Note: The UK had better use of statistics. You should get more information about their article.

The ABC should have an article written by a more competent statistician.

 

Read 896 times Last modified on Thursday, 21 June 2018 04:17
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